Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has got important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
